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Entering Late in the Trend, But Still OK

We had what looked like an early morning reversal today – after Chicago PMI and Consumer Confidence numbers. But was the Low really in? And was it safe to go Long? The clue was the blue, Professional bars. We’d seen Professionals buy the breakout (“jump the creek”) and then buy back in on the re-test ... more »

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Rule of Thumb #5: Trend Days Close Near Their Extreme

Another Rule of Thumb video. This time about Trend Days (or Range Days if you prefer). These one direction, large range days Open at one extreme and Close at the opposite extreme. The best game plan on a Trend Day is to enter on a pull-back and hold to near the day’s Close. For me ... more »

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Emini Seasonality: Now We Gonna Tussle

First of all an apology for spamming you this morning. You might notice Emini-Watch has a new look & fell. Well, when we switched it on this morning, the RSS feed re-set and blasted out the last 10 emails. So apologies. Anyway, the September seasonality trade is looking good. We’ve fallen off over 45 points ... more »

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Day After FOMC

FOMC finally out of the way and not much new information. But the big money will be digesting it and the “real” move will come in the next couple of days. We could still make the September Effect seasonal trade – but Thursday into Friday’s trade will tell. I still think we’re due for a ... more »

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Bond Market: Waiting on FOMC

Monday was a hard day at the office – no trend and small range. Tuesday might be dull, except for the first 45 minutes. Then Wednesday we’ll all be waiting on the FOMC minutes and Janet’s press conference in the afternoon. Every FOMC meeting is important, but I can’t help thinking that this one is ... more »

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Next Seasonal Trade: The September Effect

Back from a little time off and some travelling in Northern Italy. And the next Seasonal Trade is potentially lining up. The September Effect is the fourth of my five favourite Seasonal Trades. The pattern I’ll be looking for is a little run-up this week leading to a sell-off over the next two weeks. We’ve ... more »

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